Current conditions
--°
Temperature is the share of stocks in an uptrend (above their 50-day average). Above 50° is healthy. Tonight the moon is lit by the same share.
The Desk
Every chart behind today's forecast: the radar, heatmaps, sector winds, crypto currents and the big picture. The short version is the forecast.
Today's forecast
The short version: today's forecast in plain wordsRisk outlook · next 3 days
Today, hour by hour · times ET
Station readings
Active alerts
What to watch today, and why each alert was issued.
Coming up
The big reports and earnings ahead, and why each one matters.
Crypto seas
Crypto trades around the clock, so this is always live.
- Seas: rougher water means bigger daily swings.
- Cost to hold: what buyers pay to keep a bet open, against the usual rate. Well above usual means a crowded boat.
Currents · where crypto money is flowing
Every big coin, grouped by what it does and scored like the stock themes, against Bitcoin. Tap a theme for its coins.
Crowded boats
Where traders pay the most to hold one side of a trade, and whether that side is being squeezed right now. Live.
The Desk
Maps and charts for going deeper. Open any theme or stock to see what's inside.
Heatmaps
Four ways to see what's hot, what's changing and who's leading.
Surface map
Where the money is going. Warm colours are strong groups of stocks and cool colours are weak ones.
Right is up more this month · Higher is heating up this week · Tap a group for its stocks
Doppler radar
Stocks, crypto and the big macro markets on one scope. Each sweep finds the assets moving more than usual and pops up their numbers.
Further out is a bigger move than that asset's normal day · Green rising, red falling · Bigger blips trade more
Sector winds
Which S&P sectors beat the index this month, and which lagged it.
The big picture
The main markets and rates over time. Tap up to three tiles to compare them on one timeline.
Barometers
The yield curve through time
10-year minus 2-year, in points below zero = inverted
Usually longer loans pay more, so the curve slopes up. When the 2-year pays more than the 10-year, the curve is inverted, which has often come before slowdowns. The dashed line is the curve a year ago.
Forecast verification
How our calls did. A call is a group turning hot on our board, checked five trading days later. The record stays up, good or bad.
Full forecast discussion and official news
The forecaster's notes
Official news
How the forecast is built
- Temperature
- The share of ~210 liquid U.S. stocks trading above their 50-day average.
- Sky
- Four yes/no checks: S&P 500 in an uptrend, most stocks rising, risky bonds beating safe ones, VIX under 20. Four is sunny, none is stormy.
- Risk outlook
- One point for each active factor in the list, capped at 5. Levels follow the Storm Prediction Center scale.
- Alerts
- Each card shows the rule that issued it. Group alerts come from each group's strength score.
- Surface map
- Each group sits at its 1-month return (left to right) and its change in strength this week (bottom to top). Colour and lines show strength smoothed across the map. The front is strength 50.
- Radar
- Every stock, coin and macro series we track. Distance from the centre is today's move against that asset's own normal day; colour is direction, or volume against normal.
- Seas
- Each coin's typical daily move over 30 days, on the Douglas sea scale.
- Freshness
- Readings older than 3 days are marked with their date. The whole edition is one JSON file, so builders can use the same data.